VRJ CD 12 — WAR ROOM

Days to Primary (Jun 2)

65+

Endorsements

Consultants Hired

Candidates in Field

On Track

War room dashboard built and deployed
6 consultant firms hired and active
Ballot qualified — 500+ petition signatures collected
Mercer County Convention won (Feb 26)
65+ endorsements secured (elected officials, clergy, Latino leaders)
District research complete — D+13, open seat
Opposition research on 5 top threats

Needs Attention

Campaign Manager — not yet hired
Fundraising totals — [TBD, verify with Gerry]
Petition filing deadline — March 23 (4 PM)
Expand endorsements beyond Mercer County
Baseline poll — RECEIVED (Feb 16-19, 2026). See Polling tab.
Website (verlinaforcongress.com) — status TBD

Critical Path to Primary

✅ **Campaign Launch** — Dec 2025. TP engaged, 6 consultants hired.
✅ **Ballot Access** — Feb 2026. 500+ petition signatures collected.
✅ **Mercer County Lock** — 65+ endorsements (clergy, elected officials, Latino leaders, convention).
⏳ **File Nomination Petition** — March 23, 2026 (4 PM deadline).
✅ **Baseline Poll** — TargetSmart (n=500, Feb 16-19). RECEIVED. VRJ 15%, 56% undecided.
⏳ **Fundraising Ramp** — Minimum $275K–$415K to run; $500K–$1.5M to compete.
⏳ **Voter Contact Launch** — NGS canvassing (20K–40K doors), NBI digital, GDA mail.
⏳ **Paid Media** — Sena Kozar TV/radio/streaming buys (Philly + NY DMA).
⏳ **Early Voting** — May 26–31. GOTV push begins.
🗳️ **PRIMARY ELECTION DAY** — June 2, 2026.

**New Jersey Congressional District 12** — Central NJ, 4 counties (Mercer, Middlesex, Somerset, Union), 32 municipalities. Anchored by Trenton (state capital) and Princeton. One of the most racially diverse districts in NJ — no single racial majority. Safely Democratic (D+13 PVI). Open seat — Bonnie Watson Coleman (first Black woman elected to Congress from NJ) retiring after 6 terms. **18 Democrats in primary field.**

771K

Population (2023 ACS)

D+13

Cook PVI (2025)

61.2%

Watson Coleman 2024

$109K

Median HH Income

Category	Value	Notes
White (Non-Hispanic)	39.7%	Suburban professionals, Princeton
Hispanic/Latino	~22%	Growing — Trenton, North Brunswick
Asian (Non-Hispanic)	19.2%	South Asian — S. Brunswick, Plainsboro, E. Brunswick
Black (Non-Hispanic)	15.3%	Trenton, Plainfield, Franklin TWP
Median Age	40.1 years
College Degree (25+)	Top 10% nationally	42nd of 436 districts
Poverty Rate	9.35%	National: 12.4% (sharp local disparities)

Year	Dem Candidate	Dem %	GOP Candidate	GOP %	Margin
2024	Watson Coleman	61.2%	Mayfield	~30%	D+31
2022	Watson Coleman	63.1%	Mayfield	35.9%	D+27
2020	Watson Coleman	65.6%	Razzoli	32.6%	D+33
2024 Pres.	Harris	—	Trump	—	D+30+
2020 Pres.	Biden (66.6%)	—	Trump (32.1%)	—	D+34.5

Municipality	County	Character	Priority
Trenton	Mercer	State capital, urban, 25% poverty — VRJ home base	HOME BASE
Princeton	Mercer	University town, affluent, progressive	HIGH
Ewing TWP	Mercer	Suburban, TCNJ campus	HIGH
West Windsor	Mercer	Affluent suburb, large Asian population	HIGH
East Brunswick	Middlesex	Suburban, Brad Cohen's base (Mayor)	CONTESTED
South Brunswick	Middlesex	Diverse suburb, Hamawy's base	CONTESTED
Monroe TWP	Middlesex	Large senior population, retirement communities	HIGH
North Brunswick	Middlesex	Diverse suburban, growing Hispanic	MEDIUM
Franklin TWP	Somerset	Diverse, Robinson's base (Commissioner)	CONTESTED
Hillsborough	Somerset	Suburban, moderate	MEDIUM
Montgomery	Somerset	Affluent, highly educated	MEDIUM
Plainfield	Union	Urban, Mapp's base (Mayor), small CD-12 share	LOW

204,887

Registered Dems (NGS)

~59,000

Projected Votes Cast

12K–18K

Est. Win Number

29%

Projected Turnout

Metric	Value	Source
White	60%	TargetSmart
Black	22%	TargetSmart
POC (all)	45.9%	GDA Wins
Women	58%	TargetSmart
Age 65+	46%	TargetSmart
Vote-by-Mail history	40%	TargetSmart

County	% of CD-12 Dems	VRJ Strategy	Opponent Threat
Mercer	39%	HOME BASE — lock with endorsement depth	No major opponent based here
Middlesex	32%	GROWTH TARGET — East Brunswick, S. Brunswick, Monroe	Cohen (E. Brunswick Mayor), Hamawy (S. Brunswick)
Somerset	24%	CONTESTED — Franklin, Montgomery, Bridgewater	Robinson (County Commissioner Dir.)
Union	7%	SMALL — Plainfield only	Mapp (Plainfield Mayor)

Channel	Target	Consultant	Status
Door-to-Door	20,000–40,000 knocks	NGS ($120K–$216K)	Not Started — launches late April
Phone Banking	TBD	NGS / Volunteers	Not Started
Peer-to-Peer Texting	TBD	NBI ($1K/mo)	Not Started
Digital Ads	TBD impressions	NBI ($5–6K/mo + commission)	Not Started
Direct Mail	TBD pieces × 3+ drops	GDA ($0.33–$0.61/piece)	Not Started
TV/Radio/Streaming	TBD	Sena Kozar (commission)	Not Started

**Win Number: ~12,000 – 18,000 votes** (20–30% of projected 59K turnout in an 18-candidate field). **Path to victory:** Lock Mercer County (~23K Dem votes at 29% turnout × VRJ share). Win convincingly in Mercer (39% of CD-12 Dems) and pick up enough in Middlesex and Somerset to clear the field. With 18 candidates splitting the vote, a strong plurality from a geographic base wins. **Key variables:** Actual turnout (25–35% range), number of serious candidates still running at election day, VBM vs. Election Day split (40% have VBM history).

500

Respondents (Likely Dem Primary Voters)

±4.9%

Margin of Error

Feb 16-19

Field Dates (2026)

56%

Undecided

County	% of Sample	Actual CD-12 Dems	Notes
Mercer	32%	~39%	VRJ home base — slightly undersampled
Middlesex	37%	~32%	Largest in sample — Cohen/Hamawy territory
Somerset	25%	~24%	Robinson's base — well represented
Union	7%	~7%	Mapp's base — accurate representation

Category	Breakdown	Notes
Race — White	59%	Largest bloc
Race — Black	18%	Key VRJ base
Race — Hispanic	11%	Growing demo
Race — Asian/PI	8%	South Asian suburbs
Gender — Women	58%	Majority of Dem primary voters
Gender — Men	41%	—
Age — 18-49	30%	Younger voters
Age — 50-64	30%	Middle-age voters
Age — 65+	40%	Largest age bloc — high turnout
Ideology — Very Liberal	25%	Progressive wing
Ideology — Somewhat Liberal	33%	Largest ideology bloc
Ideology — Moderate/Conservative	38%	Swing voters

Candidate	% Support	Interpretation
Verlina Reynolds-Jackson	15%	LEADS — highest name ID from Assemblywoman role
Brad Cohen	6%	East Brunswick mayor base
Sue Altman	6%	Progressive network recognition
Adam Hamawy	6%	Duckworth media coverage
Shanel Robinson	5%	Somerset County base
Adrian Mapp	3%	Limited to Plainfield
Undecided	56%	MASSIVE OPPORTUNITY — race is wide open
Other candidates	3%	12 other candidates splitting remainder

Figure	Favorable	Unfavorable	Can't ID / No Opinion	Net Fav
VRJ	28%	2%	70%	+26
Brad Cohen	10%	3%	87%	+7
Sue Altman	18%	9%	73%	+9
Adam Hamawy	7%	4%	89%	+3
Adrian Mapp	7%	3%	90%	+4
Shanel Robinson	10%	3%	87%	+7
— COMPARISON —	—	—	—	—
Amy Kennedy Sherrill	88%	6%	6%	+82
Cory Booker	85%	8%	7%	+77
AOC	84%	10%	6%	+74
Phil Murphy	63%	29%	8%	+34

Characteristic	% Much More / Somewhat More Likely	Rank
Wants to expand healthcare access	97%	#1
Truly cares about people like me	96%	#2
Willing to stand up to Trump and ICE	95%	#3
Years of public service experience	89%	#4
Endorsed by community leaders	87%	#5
Has a specific plan for lowering costs	85%	#6
A fresh face / new generation of leadership	67%	#7
Business experience / job creator	64%	#8

Favorable Terrain for VRJ

Lowering healthcare costs — top issue, VRJ's committee credentials align
Protecting Social Security & Medicare — resonates with 65+ (40% of electorate)
Standing up to Trump on immigration/ICE — 95% say important
Addressing gun violence — education committee experience relevant
Protecting abortion rights — strong with women (58% of voters)

Complex / Watch Closely

Israel-Palestine — 37% sympathize more with Palestinians, 20% Israel, 33% both equally. Divisive.
Lowering cost of living — voters want specifics, not generalities
Climate change — 70% 'extremely important' but crowded messaging space
Immigration — nuanced (pro-immigrant but enforcement concerns)
Economy & jobs — business experience ranks low (#8) but cost of living ranks high

Message Frame	% Very/Somewhat Convincing	Assessment
Voting rights champion — fought to expand access	90%	TOP TIER — authentic to record
Healthcare expansion — led efforts on Medicaid/ACA	90%	TOP TIER — committee credentials
Stand up to ICE — protect immigrant communities	88%	STRONG — matches voter priority
Education investment — fought for school funding	87%	STRONG — Chair of Ed Committee
Impeach Trump — hold administration accountable	83%	STRONG — but polarizing potential
Lowering costs — property tax relief, prescription drugs	80%	GOOD — needs specifics
Trenton roots — working-class background	78%	GOOD — authenticity play

87%

Favorable BEFORE Bio (initial)

83%

Favorable AFTER Full Bio Read

-4pts

Bio Impact (net decline)

⚠️

Bio Needs Refinement

Strategic Takeaways

🏆 **VRJ leads at 15%** — highest initial ballot share. But 56% undecided = race is wide open. Name ID advantage must convert to vote share.
🎯 **70% can't ID VRJ** — massive awareness gap to close. Paid media (Sena Kozar) and field (NGS) are critical to push name recognition before early voting (May 26).
💬 **Top messages: voting rights (90%) and healthcare (90%)** — lead with these two frames. Education investment (87%) and anti-ICE (88%) are strong secondary messages.
⚠️ **Bio test shows -4pt decline** — the current bio narrative may include elements that reduce enthusiasm. Refine bio to emphasize strengths (committee chairs, healthcare, education) and minimize any weak points.
👥 **65+ voters are 40% of electorate** — Social Security, Medicare, and healthcare messaging should be weighted heavily. This is the largest age bloc and highest-turnout group.
🗺️ **Mercer undersampled (32% vs 39% actual)** — VRJ's real lead may be slightly higher than poll shows since her home base was underrepresented in the sample.
🏳️ **Israel-Palestine is a minefield** — 37% pro-Palestinian, 20% pro-Israel, 33% both. No clear winning position. Recommend 'dignity for all' framing without taking a hard side.
📊 **Experience matters: 89% value public service experience** — VRJ's 5-term record is her strongest differentiator vs. Hamawy (zero experience) and Altman (no elected office).

Campaign Phases

✅ **Phase 0: Pre-Launch** (Dec 2025 – Feb 2026) — Team assembly, ballot access, early endorsements. 6 firms hired, 500+ signatures, 65+ endorsements, Mercer Convention.
⏳ **Phase 1: Build** (Mar 2026) — Petition filing (Mar 23), coalition expansion to Middlesex/Somerset/Union, baseline poll (TargetSmart), fundraising ramp.
⏳ **Phase 2: Persuasion** (Apr – mid-May 2026) — Sena Kozar media buys, NGS canvassing launch, NBI digital ads, GDA persuasion mail, tracking polls.
⏳ **Phase 3: GOTV** (Late May – Jun 2) — Early voting (May 26-31), VBM chase (GDA), door knocks (NGS), digital GOTV (NBI), Election Day ops.

Date	Deadline	Owner	Status
Mar 23	Nomination Petition Filing (4 PM)	Legal	UPCOMING
Mar 26	Petition amendment deadline (4 PM)	Legal	UPCOMING
Mar 27	Petition objection deadline (4 PM)	Legal	UPCOMING
Apr 1	Petition challenge determination	Legal	—
Apr 8	Party affiliation change deadline	Field/NGS	—
Apr 15	Q1 FEC Filing (Jan-Mar)	Compliance	—
Apr 18	Mail-in ballots begin mailing	Field/GDA	—
May 12	Voter registration deadline	Field/NGS	CRITICAL
May 21	Pre-Primary FEC Filing (Apr 1–May 13)	Compliance	—
May 26	VBM application deadline (by mail)	GDA/NBI	—
May 26–31	EARLY VOTING PERIOD	Field/NGS	CRITICAL
Jun 1	In-person VBM deadline (3 PM)	Field	—
Jun 2	PRIMARY ELECTION DAY (6 AM–8 PM)	ALL	ELECTION DAY

Date	Milestone	Status
Dec 2025	Campaign launch / TP engaged as General Consultant	DONE
Dec 2025	6 consultant firms hired (NGS, Sena Kozar, GDA, NBI, TargetSmart)	DONE
Jan 12	Mercer County Clergy Coalition endorsement (30 faith leaders)	DONE
Feb 2	Mercer County Elected Officials endorsement (10+ officials)	DONE
Feb 4	Mercer County Latino Community Leaders endorsement (25+)	DONE
Feb 18	Mercer County Latino Democratic Caucus endorsement	DONE
Feb 2026	Ballot qualified — 500+ petition signatures collected	DONE
Feb 26	Mercer County Convention	DONE

**Verlina Reynolds-Jackson** — NJ Assemblywoman, LD-15 (5th term). Chair, Assembly Education Committee. Vice Chair, Appropriations. First African American woman elected Trenton East Ward Councilwoman. **Mercer County base (39% of CD-12 Dems).** 65+ endorsements. 6 consultant firms hired. B.A. Sociology (TCNJ), M.S. Administration (Central Michigan). Website: verlinaforcongress.com

Candidate	Current Office	Base County	Early $	Key Strength	Key Weakness
Susan Altman	None (2024 NJ-7 nominee)	OUTSIDE DISTRICT	$250K+	Fundraising + name ID	Doesn't live in CD-12
Brad Cohen	Mayor, East Brunswick (3 terms)	Middlesex (32%)	$279K	Early $ + mayor record	Watson Coleman OPPOSED him
Adam Hamawy	None (first-time candidate)	Middlesex (32%)	~$350K	Duckworth story + media	Zero political experience
Adrian Mapp	Mayor, Plainfield (12 yrs)	Union (7%)	TBD	Deepest experience + Union line	Tiny Union County base
Shanel Robinson	Somerset County Comm. Dir.	Somerset (24%)	TBD	Historic first + veteran	Lower name recognition

Altman — Vulnerabilities

Does NOT live in CD-12 (Lambertville, NJ-7)
Somerset Black Caucus called candidacy 'disrespectful'
Israel flip-flop — pro-Israel in NJ-7, now 'reassessing'
Lost only general election (NJ-7, 2024)
White candidate replacing Black congresswoman

Cohen — Vulnerabilities

Watson Coleman publicly OPPOSED him
Pro-Israel/AIPAC alignment in progressive D+13 district
Not from Mercer County power center
Moderate lane crowded

Hamawy — Vulnerabilities

Zero political experience — first-time candidate
Abolish ICE position could be weaponized
Gaza trip controversy — criticism of Israel
Lives in South Brunswick (Middlesex), not Mercer

Mapp / Robinson — Vulnerabilities

Mapp: Plainfield in Union County — only 7% of CD-12 Dems
Mapp: Overdevelopment criticism (6K new units strained infrastructure)
Robinson: Lower name recognition outside Somerset
Robinson: Fundraising gap — no major early numbers
Robinson: Campaign infrastructure less developed

Issue	VRJ Advantage	Key Contrast
Governing Experience	5-term Assemblywoman, committee chairs	Altman: no office. Hamawy: no office. Cohen: local mayor.
Lives in District	Trenton (heart of Mercer County)	Altman: lives in Lambertville (NJ-7).
Education Policy	Chair, Assembly Education Committee	No other candidate has comparable education credentials.
Mercer County Base	39% of CD-12 Dem voters — largest county share	Cohen: Middlesex. Mapp: Union. Robinson: Somerset.
Endorsement Depth	65+ endorsements (officials, clergy, Latino leaders)	Broadest coalition; Altman and Hamawy have narrower bases.
Institutional Support	Sen. Turner, Assemblymen, county-wide officials	Cohen lost Watson Coleman's support.
Representation	Black woman succeeding Black woman (Watson Coleman)	Shares this lane with Robinson and Mapp.

Press Releases Issued

65+

Endorsements Announced

Earned Media Wins

Ad Spend (Not Yet Launched)

Date	Headline	Type	Reach
Jan 12	Mercer County Clergy Leaders Unite to Endorse VRJ	Endorsement	Mercer County
Feb 2	VRJ for Congress — Mercer County Elected Officials Endorsement	Endorsement	Mercer County
Feb 4	Mercer County Latino Community Leaders Endorse VRJ	Endorsement	Mercer County
Feb 18	Mercer County Latino Democratic Caucus Endorses VRJ	Endorsement	Mercer County

Block	Date	Key Names	Count
Mercer Elected Officials	Feb 2	Sen. Turner, Asm. Verrelli, Asm. DeAngelo, Mayor Gusciora, Sheriff, Clerk, 4 Commissioners	10+
Mercer Clergy Coalition	Jan 12	Rev. Boyer, Rev. Spencer, Rev. Jordan, Bishop Denton, Bishop Gaines	30
Mercer Latino Leaders	Feb 4	Council Pres. Figueroa Kettenburg, Councilwoman Martinez, Pedro Medina	25+
Mercer Latino Dem Caucus	Feb 18	Pedro Medina, Rosa Rosado, Councilwoman Gonzalez	Formal caucus

Paid Media (Not Yet Launched)

Sena Kozar Strategies — TV/Radio/Streaming (commission-based)
NBI — Digital ads, social media ($5–6K/mo + 9–15% commission)
GDA Wins — Direct mail ($0.33–$0.61/piece, no retainer)
Expected launch: April 2026 (Phase 2 Persuasion)

Media Contacts

Sena Kozar to provide press contact list
Target outlets: NJ Globe, Insider NJ, NJ Spotlight, WHYY, Trenton Times
National angle: NBC (Hamawy/Duckworth coverage shows media interest in race)

$275K

Minimum to Run (Low)

$415K

Minimum to Run (High)

$500K–$1.5M

Competitive Target

$222K–$324K

Known Consultant Costs

Consultant	Role	Budget (Low)	Budget (High)	Status
NGS	Field Operations	$120,000	$216,000	Active — 20K-40K knocks
TargetSmart	Polling & Research	$72,700	$72,700	Active — baseline + 2 trackers
NBI	Digital + Texting	$30,000	$35,000	Active — $5-6K/mo + $1K/mo text
GDA Wins	Direct Mail	~$50,000	~$90,000	Active — est. 3 drops
Sena Kozar	Media (TV/Radio)	TBD	TBD	Active — commission-based
Thorough Planning	General Consultant	TBD	TBD	Active
SUBTOTAL (known)		$222,700	$323,700	—
+ Media buys + ops		~$50K	~$90K+	—
TOTAL MINIMUM		$275,000	$415,000	—

Candidate	Early Fundraising	Notes
Adam Hamawy	~$350,000	Strongest early fundraiser — Duckworth national network
Brad Cohen	$279,256	First to announce — organizational head start
Sue Altman	$250,000+	$250K in first 12 hours — grassroots + progressive network
Adrian Mapp	TBD	No major early numbers reported
Shanel Robinson	TBD	No major early numbers reported
VRJ	TBD — verify	Fundraising data needed from Gerry

Filing	Period	Deadline	Status
Q1 2026	Jan 1 – Mar 31	Apr 15, 2026	Pending
Pre-Primary	Apr 1 – May 13	May 21, 2026 (12-day pre-primary)	Pending
Q2 2026	Apr 1 – Jun 30	Jul 15, 2026	Pending

Status: OPEN

Campaign Manager position NOT yet hired
Priority: CRITICAL — daily operations, staff coordination, budget oversight
This is CLIENT_BRAIN.md Open Question #6

Candidate: VRJ

Verlina Reynolds-Jackson — NJ Assemblywoman, LD-15 (5th term)
Chair, Assembly Education Committee
Vice Chair, Appropriations Committee
Website: verlinaforcongress.com

#	Firm	Role	Key Contact	Budget	Status
1	Thorough Planning LLC	General Consultant	Gerry & Missy Balmir	—	Active (Dec 2025)
2	New Ground Strategies (NGS)	Field / Grassroots	Lindsey Vaughn, Ben Tevelin	$120K–$216K	Active (Dec 2025)
3	Sena Kozar Strategies	Media Services	Dan Sena, Scott Kozar	Commission	Active (Nov 2025)
4	GDA Wins	Direct Mail	Martin Long	$0.33–$0.61/piece	Active (Dec 2025)
5	New Blue Interactive (NBI)	Digital	Taryn Rosenkranz (CEO)	$5–6K/mo + comm.	Active (Nov 2025)
6	TargetSmart Research	Polling & Research	Michael Muller, Sara Stephenson	$72,700	Active (Nov 2025)
7	TP Intelligence Ops	Campaign Tech	gerry@thoroughplanning.com	—	Active (Feb 2026)

Field & Voter Contact

NGS: 20K–40K door knocks, MiniVAN/VAN, local hires (Trenton/Plainfield)
NBI: Peer-to-peer texting ($1K/mo), email fundraising, digital ads
GDA: Persuasion mail, VBM chase, data-driven targeting (Martin Long, 17 yrs NCEC)

Media & Research

Sena Kozar: TV/radio/streaming, in-house production, multilingual (Hispanic-owned)
TargetSmart: Baseline poll (n=500) + 2 trackers + consulting + VBM tracking
NBI: AI-informed targeting (200+ data points), CampaignTech Company of the Year

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